Ringgit versus US dollar at 4.40 in 2024, says Maybank IB

Source: Business Times

KUALA LUMPUR: The ringgit is expected to be better this year once the fog of uncertainty on the US interest rate policy, in terms of timing and quantum, clears away, said Maybank Investment Bank Bhd (Maybank IB).

The bank has maintained itd view of the ringgit ending this year firmer versus the US dollar at 4.40.

Within the next six to nine months, Maybank IB said ringgit-positive factors include the signs of improving economic growth prospects, as per the exports rebound in January 2024 of 8.2 per cent year on year (YoY) after 10 straight months of decline.

"We expect a full-year rebound in gross exports, thus exports of goods and services, to support real gross domestic product (GDP) growth to 4.4 per cent," it said in a note.

The ringgit is expected to be better this year once the fog of uncertainty on the US interest rate policy, in terms of timing and quantum, clears away, said Maybank Investment Bank Bhd (Maybank IB).

The ringgit strengthened to close at 4.59 at end-2023 versus the low of 4.79 on Oct 23 2023 as markets priced the US Federal Reserve cutting interest rate as soon as March 2024 and by as much as 150 basis point cuts.

Granted the outlook has since been revised to the Fed funds rate being cut by between 75bps to 100bps starting mid-year currently, which has renewed the pressures on the ringgit versus the US dollar recently.

Maybank IB said in the longer term, economic reforms and restructuring as well as strategic economic growth policies are vital for the ringgit outlook.

Over the next couple of years, the bank sees execution/implementation of fiscal reforms as the "low-hanging fruit" for a sustained ringgit-positive/supportive outcome.

"This is given the legally-binding target of reducing budget deficit to 3.0 per cent of GDP and capping government total debt at no more than 60 per cent of GDP in three to five years as per the Fiscal Responsibility Act (FRA) i.e. by 2026 at the earliest and by 2028 latest.

"Further revenue-enhancement measures this year include strengthening tax compliance via e-invoicing starting August 1 2024.

"At the same time, we expect to see the government rolling out the targeted fuel subsidy rationalisation by end the end of second quarter 2024 at the earliest in view of the on-going Subsidised Diesel Control System 2.0 pilot programme (February-April 2024), plus complementing FRA with the tabling of Government Procurement Act next quarter as well," it said.

Meanwhile, Maybank IB said Bank Negara Malaysia sees continued tight monetary policy globally in the near-term.

Notwithstanding this, the bank said it expects overnight policy rate (OPR) to remain at 3.00 per cent throughout 2024 given its current forecasts of GDP growth pick up and upside risk to inflation rate.

"This is largely due to fiscal measures to widen the tax base and enhance revenues especially the consumption-related taxes as well as rationalise subsidies.

"The latest interest rate swap rate implies the market is pricing in a stable OPR this year," it added.